A top-25 SEC showdown on tap in Gainesville

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-25 foes collide in Gainesville this afternoon, as the 12th-ranked Florida Gators play host to the 25th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores in an SEC affair at the O'Connell Center.

Billy Donovan's Gators are peaking at the right time. Florida enters this contest with a six-game win streak in tow and moved to 6-1 in conference play with a 74-66 victory over South Carolina on Thursday. The win was also the 18th straight at the O'Connell Center, tied for the fourth longest streak in program history.

Kevin Stallings' Commodores are just a game behind the Gators in the SEC, following Tuesday's 82-74 loss at Arkansas. Vanderbilt has split its last four games and is 16-6 overall on the year.

This represents the 123rd meeting in this longstanding series. Vanderbilt holds a narrow 63-59 series advantage. These two teams have traded sweeps in the season series in each of the last three years. Florida is 12-3 against Vanderbilt at home under Donovan.

The Commodores have a fighting chance in any game thanks to the dynamic duo of John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor. Jenkins leads the SEC in scoring at 19.9 ppg and is shooting .481 from the floor overall, including 82-of-186 from three- point range. Taylor is fourth in the conference in scoring at 17.4 ppg and can also hit the long ball at a .463 clip (37-of-80). Scoring depth can be found in the form of Lance Goulbourne (9.6 ppg), Brad Tinsley (9.4 ppg) and Festus Ezeli (9.0 ppg).

Vanderbilt shot a solid 50 percent from the floor at Arkansas, but fell victim to the Razorbacks' hot shooting in the second half (6-of-12 from three-point range) in an eight-point loss. Jenkins hit four three-pointers himself and was right on his season averaging with a game-high 19 points. Taylor poured in 18 points, Ezeli had 14 and Steve Tchiengang chipped in 10 in the loss.

One of the top offensive teams in the nation, Florida has a number of scoring options at its disposal, leading to an impressive 80.4 ppg. The Gators rely heavily on its long range acumen, delivering on 40 percent from behind the arc. Kenny Boynton plays a big role in that regard, averaging 17.5 ppg , fueled by a .438 clip from three-point range (74-of-169). Perimeter help comes in the form of Bradley Beal (14.2 ppg) and Erving Walker (12.7 ppg), who also serves as the team's primary distributor (5.1 apg). Center Patric Young (11.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Erik Murphy (10.3 ppg) provide the frontcourt balance.

The Gators jumped all over the Gamecocks early, building a 17-point lead in the first half, but South Carolina battled back to trail by only nine at the break. UF was able to hold off USC however, to remain unbeaten at home. The Gators knocked down a season-high 23 free-throws in the win. Boynton led the way 24 points, while Beal recorded his fourth career double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds. Walker tacked on 14 points and dished out seven assists. The team got the win despite shooting under 40 percent from the floor and a season-low .250 from three-point range.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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